Monday, April 30, 2012

Sarah Palin Endorsement Only Relevant for About a Week

Sarah Palin has endorsed Richard Mourdock for Senate.  John McCain endorsed Lugar.

Neither of those endorsements are particularly surprising.  McCain endorsed his long-time friend.  Palin endorsed the Tea Party favorite.

Right now we're hearing a lot about the Palin endorsement.  So much so, in fact, that Mourdock, while thanking another group for their endorsement, went out of his way to again address the Palin endorsement.

Why?  Because Palin is incredibly popular among uber-conservatives.  And those are the people the Lugar and Mourdock are fighting for right now.  So as we get much closer to the May 8th Primary, I wouldn't be surprised if we continue to hear Mourdock tout the importance of the Palin endorsement.

One way or another, though, I bet that ends May 8th.  If Lugar wins, of course it ends along with Mourdock's campaign.  If Mourdock wins, though, as is looking more likely every day, I doubt he continues to brag much about the Palin endorsement.

Why?  Because the voters he's fighting for will change dramatically.  Today he's fighting for right-wingers and is proud to display his endorsement by someone right-wingers adore.

But starting May 9th, Mourdock will have the right-wingers' votes locked up.  If he wins the primary, the Republicans are going to vote for him in November.

So starting May 9th, Mourdock is fighting for the votes of independents and swing-voters.  And that crowd aligns themselves more with the Democrats when it comes to attitudes towards Sarah Palin.  Their feelings range from a great dislike toward her, to outright hating her.

So while you see Mourdock proudly wearing the Palin endorsement today, I wouldn't expect that trend to continue for more than another week.  Then it gets filed away as a campaign hindrance. 

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