Kennedy Will Win...er, wait...No, Ballard Will Win...um, hold on...

I was fully prepared to post my 2011 Indianapolis Mayoral prediction today.  My initial post was to declare my belief the Melina Kennedy would win the Mayor's race with 49% of the vote, Ballard coming in at 47%, and the remaining 4% going to Libertarian Chris Bowen.

With the lack of publicly available polls, I had to base my prediction on other things. First, the tone of the campaigns.  The Kennedy campaign seems to have gotten progressively nicer, while the Ballard camp seems to have gotten angrier lately.  Second, the lack of polls being released by the campaigns seemed to be an indicator of a tight race that neither side was willing to give up too much info on.


Third, there's a bunch of Republicans pissed off at Greg Ballard for things like the water company, the parking meters, the back-scratching of political buddies, etc.  While Bowen has ran a relatively quiet campaign and was excluded from most debates, I fully expected to see many Republicans either vote for him or take a pass on Mayoral voting altogether, rather than vote for Ballard or Kennedy. This, of course, would push Bowen's percentage up a bit.


There's been a sequence of news in the last day or so that has made me reconsider my position.  Twice.

First, word spread Monday of a couple of internal polls that Fox 59 had gotten a hold of.  One poll, from the Ballard campaign, was said to have been taken within the last week and indicated that he had a double-digit lead, 51%-39%, with Bowen coming in at 2%.  A second poll, from the Kennedy campaign, indicated that she had a 2-point lead that was within the margin of error.  Kennedy's poll was said to have been taken about two weeks ago.

Of course, both campaigns are likely to release polling information that shows them in the best light.  The fact that Kennedy's best shot at this was a two-week old poll that has her in a statistical dead heat with Ballard can't mean good news for the Kennedy campaign.  Abdul-Hakim Shabazz was quick to point out on his Indiana Barrister blog that those numbers are the exact same numbers released by Marion County Democratic Chairman Ed Treacy on September 23rd.  That coincidence is strong enough to make one doubt the validity of the Kennedy campaign statement that the poll given to Fox 59 is only two weeks old.

So, I began to rethink my initial prediction.  In light of this new information, I was willing to now say that Ballard was going to win re-election.  My new guess, based on that polling, was 52%-47%-3%. Ballard with a strong but not enormous win over Kennedy, and Bowen's numbers a little lower because of it.

OK, so I'm ready to run with this story now.  Right?

But wait...

This morning, Gary Welsh over at Advance Indiana wrote that early voting numbers are through the roof this year. According to his story, early turnout numbers are almost twice what they were at this time in 2007, and almost as high as last year's Congressional election year.

Traditional thinking would tend to indicate that is an incredibly strong sign for Kennedy.  Early voting is, as a rule, a Democratic stronghold.  While Republicans are now, at the last minute, trying to push their people for early voting, the Marion County GOP has been opposed to any expansion of the process this year.  It's all about votes when it comes to decision making for parties, so that opposition would lead you to believe Republicans are sure Kennedy and/or other Democrats favor strongly from early voting.

So let's sum this up.  Lack of polling results being released seems to be a slight favor to Kennedy.  But then some polling results are released but they are questionable but they seem to indicate a strong favor for Ballard.  But early voting results are through the roof which seems to be a good thing for Kennedy. (You get that?)

I guess I'll just split the difference and predict the race as 48%-48%-4%.  I wouldn't be at all surprised if we see a recount necessary on this one.

Mayoral Candidate Bowen in Serious Accident



Chris Bowen

 Indianapolis Mayoral Candidate Chris Bowen (L) was in a serious car accident overnight, and considers himself lucky to be alive.  From a Facebook post from him this morning:

"Someone cut me off on the exit from the freeway. I rolled my car twice and totaled it. I am lucky to be alive. Spent the night in the E.R. Not looking forward to the coming pain, but hey, I am alive."

I consider Bowen a friend and am relieved he is already out of hospital care.  I wish him a speedy recovery from whatever injuries he may have sustained.

Ron Paul and Republicans: It's Decision Time

Dr. Ron Paul
(image credit: paul.house.gov)

There's been a lot of chatter in the blogosphere and the news lately about whether Ron Paul may abandon the Republican Party and choose to run for President on a third party ticket.  It's not exactly a surprise to be hearing these rumblings.  However, as the first presidential primaries draw closer, it is time for both Ron Paul and the Republican Elite to make a decision on how they want to proceed.

 

The first decision needs to be made by the Republicans.  It's time to answer a question: Is it more important for a Republican to win the presidency, or is it more important for Barack Obama not to?  That's the decision the GOP may be making when they decide to support or not support Ron Paul.

 

Let's break that down.  First, don't give me that "third party candidates steal votes" crap.  It isn't true.  Our votes do not belong to candidates, they belong to us.  If I vote for a third party candidate it's because they earned it.  If a major party candidate loses by a margin smaller than the amount of third party votes, then that candidate did not earn a win.  The winner wins because they earned the most votes.  The loser(s) lose because they were not successful at earning the number of votes they need.  That is fact.  You would be unable to convince me otherwise.

 

Next, Ron Paul is doing pretty well.  He is raising a ton of cash.  He is obliterating the competition in straw polls.  In head-to-head comparisons, he fares extremely well versus Obama.  The only people that don't seem to like him are the Republican Elite and the media.  Hell, even the media is slowly starting to come around.

 

But, as noted, the Republican brass don't seem to care for Paul much.  No matter how well he does, they just can't come to embrace his libertarian ideals.  More, I believe that they dislike him because he does what he believes is best rather than simply falling into line.

 

Now, though, the Republicans are going to be faced with a major problem.  There is growing belief that Ron Paul will be unable to earn the Republican nomination for President.  Because of that, the calls for Paul to run on a third party ticket get louder and louder.  On Saturday, ABC news reported that the director of the Manhattan Libertarian Party had specifically called for Paul to run for the LP. (Because of his libertarian ideals, and his 1988 run for president on the Libertarian ticket, the LP seems to be the most likely spot for Ron Paul to land if he ran as something other than Republican.)

 

The problem for Republicans has to do with Ron Paul's enormous popularity with those outside the Republican Establishment.  If Paul ran on a third party ticket, he would most certainly earn a huge number of votes, including a part of the Electoral College. If the votes are split three ways, there is little chance that a Republican candidate will earn enough votes to win the Presidency.  In fact, because of Paul's attraction to people on both sides of the aisle, a Third Party Ron Paul could quite possibly earn more votes than the Republican counterpart.

 



(image credit: wikipedia.org)



So, the Republican Elite have themselves in a pickle.  Their choices are: A) Suck it up and throw their support behind Ron Paul, a candidate they don't seem to care for but that has a real shot head-to-head versus Obama, or; B) Risk Ron Paul running on a third party ticket, in which case the GOP has no chance of 2012 victory.

 

That being said, I doubt that the Republican Elite have the intestinal fortitude to give enough support to Ron Paul to give him a shot at the nomination.  That would require conceding.  Conceding anything is not something the two major parties are known to do.

 

This brings us to the decision that needs to be made by Ron Paul.  He could wait for the Republican Elite to make a decision, but that decision is predictably a negative one for Paul. The problem is, if he waits for the Republicans to decide then they could stall.  My understanding of sore loser laws is that if Paul loses a GOP primary, then most states will not allow him to run for the same office on a different ticket in the subsequent general election.

 

That means Paul must decide about a third party run before the primaries, which gives him precious little time to do so.  Thus far his answers to questions on this issue have been relatively vague, but seem to lean heavily towards not doing so.  Of course, he's still running for the Republican nomination, so acting like he's considering defecting would be a sure-fire way to end any shot he has at an R nod. So, for now, it makes complete sense that Paul denies any third party rumors that are out there.

 

If, though, Ron Paul is serious about his intentions to be President, and all indications are that he is, he and his campaign team have to be seriously looking at the Third Party possibility.  Within a month, unless polls show him much stronger among likely Republican voters, Paul will need to decide whether to hang up his hat or to run for another party.

 

Paul's decision about a third party, though, will mean he will need to consider many of the same things that the Republican Elite will need to consider while thinking about him. If he runs as a third party candidate, there is little chance that the Republican candidate will earn enough votes to win the Presidency.  Paul, on a third party ticket, may earn more votes than the Republican, but will have a difficult time earning more votes than both the Republican and the Democrat.  In that case, it would appear that the Presidency remains under the grasp of Barack Obama. So, is it more important for Ron Paul to win, or for Obama to lose?

 

The Republican Elite and Ron Paul are both nearing the zero hour for a decision to be made.  I'm sure there are Republicans everywhere begging Ron Paul to not run third party.  I'm sure, also, that Ron Paul is using that to apply some leverage to his fellow Republicans.  "If you don't want me to go, you'd better get out there and start supporting me." The GOP probably won't offer that support, thinking they are calling Ron Paul's bluff.

 

Historically, though, Ron Paul is not known for bluffing.  I wouldn't be at all surprised if Paul announces a third party run within the next month.  If so, it's just one other story that's going to make 2012 one hell of a ride.

It's Time for "Indiana Week in Review" to Add a Libertarian to the Panel

Indiana Week in Review has had a wonderful discussion on Indiana news and happenings, mostly of a political nature, for twenty years now.  The show is moderated by Jim Shella, and uses four panel members to interject their point-of-view on the goings-on of the Hoosier State each week.  The current regular panel members are: Mike McDaniel, former chair of the Indiana Republican Party; Ann DeLaney, former chair of the Indiana Democratic Party; Jon Schwantes of Dispatch Broadcasting; and John Ketzenberger of the Indiana Fiscal Policy Institute.



Jim Shella
(from IWIR website)



Last Monday, Shella posted a blog commemorating the 20th anniversary of the show. The same day, Rupert Boneham's campaign issued a statement that Rupert would be announcing his gubernatorial decision on Saturday (my story here). The combination of these events reminded me of a conversation that was held on the first IWIR episode after Boneham announced he was forming an exploratory committee for the Governor's race.

On that episode (You can find audio of that episode here. The Rupert coverage begins at 13:02,) a few things really stood out to me.  First, the discussion it received seemed to laugh off the (then) potential candidate.  Second, it felt like the panelists, for one reason or another, were scared to tackle both the Rupert subject and the viability of the Libertarian Party.  Third, the members of the panel showed very little knowledge of how Indiana law works in respect to parties other than the Republicans and Democrats.

(You see, everything from party conventions to ballot access to primaries...everything, really...works vastly different if you're not an R or a D.  Little tricks the two major parties have made laws on to keep it so they are the only likely players in most races.  Even in races where a third party candidate is present, the laws make it very difficult for the non-major candidate to have a fair shake.)


Because of Rupert's (then) potential candidacy, I decided to comment on Shella's blog, asking him when the show planned to add a Libertarian to the panel.  Shella replied,

"We have no current plans to add a Libertarian. It is a statewide show and without a Libertarian challenging seriously for any statewide offices that would be difficult to justify."

I don't know, of course, if Shella had yet received word of Boneham's Saturday announcement.  If he had, even as predictable as the outcome of Saturday's press conference was, he had no way to know for sure what Rupert was going to say.

Well, guess what, Mr. Shella...you know now.  As of two days ago, there is a Libertarian challenging seriously for a statewide office.  And not just any statewide office, but THE statewide office...the race for Indiana Governor. For at least the next twelve months, Indiana's Libertarian Party and Rupert Boneham will be constant fixtures in the news of Indiana's politics.



Chris Spangle
Executive Director
Libertarian Party of Indiana



So now I resubmit my question to Jim Shella and the others at Indiana Week in Review:  when will you add a Libertarian to your panel?  The time to do so is now, and I challenge you to accept that.  I encourage you to take steps to very quickly have a voice of the state's third largest party represented on your show.

If you are looking for suggestions, I have a few.  At the top of that list is the current Executive Director of the Indiana Libertarian Party, Chris Spangle.  Spangle is well-informed and well-spoken.  Add in Spangle's current role in the state's Libertarian Party, and his fit for a IWIR panel position seems clear.

Sean Shepard

Aside from Spangle, other options should include the Libertarian's State Chair, Sam Goldstein. Yet another option would be former Congressional candidate and regular speaker for Libertarian ideals, Sean Shepard.

Things just changed for the Indiana Libertarian Party. Every discussion of Indiana politics, especially the 2012 Governor's race, will now mention Rupert Boneham and the Libertarian Party. It's now time for Indiana's political news show to change as well.

So...Who is Rupert Boneham, Outside of Survivor?

Now that Rupert has made an official announcement that he will seek the Libertarian Party's nomination for Governor of Indiana (see my story here), I decided to delve a little bit more into who, exactly, is Rupert Boneham...other than the guy everyone knows from Survivor.

Really, you don't have to go any further that Rupert's late September interview with Mike Ahern on his show One on One.  In the interview, all bases are covered.  Rupert's humble Kokomo beginnings.  His move to Texas to begin his adult life.  His return to Indianapolis to take care of his adopted grandparents.  His time on Survivor, and why he feels he is ready for Indiana politics.  Ahern does a great job of getting us all of the information we need about where Rupert's been up till now.

The interview came in 5 segments.  Each is embedded below. (Sorry for the size, if it looks weird.  I used the embed code from the show's page.)

Mike Ahern One on One: Rupert Boneham - Segment 1: myndytv.com

Mike Ahern One on One: Rupert Boneham - Segment 2: myndytv.com

Mike Ahern One on One: Rupert Boneham - Segment 3: myndytv.com

Mike Ahern One on One: Rupert Boneham - Segment 4: myndytv.com

Mike Ahern One on One: Rupert Boneham - Segment 5: myndytv.com

Rupert Makes It Official: He's Running For Governor

The wait is over. After speculating since August, Rupert Boneham made it official in an afternoon press conference today at the American Legion Post on Holt Road. Rupert is, in fact, going to be seeking the Libertarian Party's Nomination for Governor of Indiana.

This comes as no real surprise to people who have been following the story. Most indications since Boneham formed his exploratory commission in August have been that this would be his decision. When the announcement was made almost a week early that today's press conference would be taking place, it left little doubt. The local news even covered the story as fact as early as yesterday.

Rupert was introduced by his campaign manager, Evan McMahon, and by Indianapolis City-County councillor Ed Coleman, who represents more constituents than any other Libertarian in the nation.

In his press conference, Rupert stated he is dedicated to bringing jobs to Indiana by creating a level playing field for all businesses, be they large, small, or home-based. He stated he is a believer in unions, is currently a union member himself, but also supports right-to-work legislation.

State Libertarian chairperson Sam Goldstein stated he was "excited about the announcement, but will wait to offer any official endorsement until after the final choice is made at our April convention. "

Because of the way state laws are written, Libertarians are not allowed to participate in the primary process. Instead, they choose from their candidates at party nominating conventions each spring. As of now, Boneham is the only person who has announced they are seeking the Libertarian's gubernatorial nomination.

Boneham's campaign released a campaign poster at the well-attended press conference (so well attended that it felt more like a "Go Rupert, Go"! rally than it did a press conference.) The poster, shades of blue with a semi-circle of gold stars above gold flames that almost seem like a tightly cropped shot of the top-half of of Indiana's flag, contained the word's "It's Our Time," and "Rupert for Governor," felt like it was a poster not only for the campaign, but for the Libertarian Party itself.

There's going to be tons more coming on this story, I'm sure.

You can check out Rupert's website here, although it is not yet updated to reflect the news in today's announcement.  Boneham said to expect updates on the page within the next couple of days.  He said there is also going to ba an official Rupert for Governor Facebook page.

Bill Levin Puts Out Straight Forward Commercial

At-Large City-County Council candidate Bill Levin (L) has a new commercial hitting th airwaves. A link to it has been making its way around Facebook.

In it, Levin takes a simple and straightforward approach. Tired of the way the Republicans and Democrats are acting? Tired of crime? Vote for me.

Levin is a well-known and popular person around town. Between his higher profile and commercials like these, he's bound to really shake up the Council race next month.

Check out the commercial here