tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-928190953754695329.post1932533113899358684..comments2023-05-16T05:23:11.180-04:00Comments on Featherstone on Government: Kennedy Will Win...er, wait...No, Ballard Will Win...um, hold on...Joshhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11755157017325989727noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-928190953754695329.post-14572962515605639642011-11-01T16:22:24.315-04:002011-11-01T16:22:24.315-04:00@Paul - While I didn't include that in my writ...@Paul - While I didn't include that in my writing, I had thought about that (and should have included it.)<br /><br />I think the influx of Kennedy money mixed with what are otherwise poor samples coming from the Kennedy camp, tied together with the Ballard's huge internal poll numbers, create the kind of "You'd think Ballard's leading, but there's really an even mix" numbers I talk about at the end.Joshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11755157017325989727noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-928190953754695329.post-72343708196102875252011-11-01T16:18:59.432-04:002011-11-01T16:18:59.432-04:00@Morgan, you are obviously correct about my bad ma...@Morgan, you are obviously correct about my bad math there. I was trying to state a 5% Ballard win with a 3% Bowen turnout, so 51%-46%-3%. Sorry about that.Joshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11755157017325989727noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-928190953754695329.post-35920325009823333702011-11-01T15:48:44.534-04:002011-11-01T15:48:44.534-04:00"Third, there's a bunch of Republicans pi..."Third, there's a bunch of Republicans pissed off at Greg Ballard for things like the water company, the parking meters, the back-scratching of political buddies, etc."<br /><br />I totally agree with that, however, I don't think Kennedy has exploited those potential issues. She had to link the unpopular, anti-fiscal conservative Ballard policies directly to the Mayor to get outside of in-the-know core conservatives who are angry at Ballard. She hasn't done that.<br /><br />I would add something else to your analysis. The big, last minute contributors are going heavily to Kennedy - about 3 or 4 to 1. Those are insiders placing bets on what they believe will be the winning horse. It's not a reach ton consider those folks have some inside polling info that we don't have.Paul K. Ogdenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16137003328850866711noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-928190953754695329.post-43176476737460731952011-11-01T15:03:00.297-04:002011-11-01T15:03:00.297-04:0052, 47, 3? That adds up to 102. However, the 48,...52, 47, 3? That adds up to 102. However, the 48, 48, 2 is correct. I see it going 50-48-2 in Melina's favor.Morgan Whitacrenoreply@blogger.com